Saturday, February 15, 2020

CoVID-19 "Chineese" coronavirus - a conspiracy theory

Data bellow are not supported by any scientific data and there is no way to prove it (even if it would be true). Let's now think about a scenario...

Some country created a "perfect bio-weaponry virus":

  • Extremely infectious
  • No symptoms at all for long period
  • A vaccine exist
  • RNA-type virus, thus high chance of mutation
  • A vaccine works well for the whole family, even for most mutations
  • Could be deadly or not - effect has further consequences
  • Infected people having some kind of medical problems causing them ineffective in battle (and/or science)
  • Infected people become sterile
Such a weapon could be used in case of war. Or for economic purpose.
Several use scenarios are possible:
  • Very deadly virus (>90% infected are killed)
    • Could be used to wipe enemy
    • After use of nuclear weapon in Hiroshima and Nagasaki country responsible for that (United States of America) was blamed a lot for cruelty and killing many people
    • Whoever use it would be blamed by the history
    • People becoming sterile are not important in this scenario
  • Deadly, but not much (few percent infected infected are killed)
    • Dangerous enough to force countries to use precautions
    • Impacts world logistics - people won't travel much
    • Increase separation of different regions
    • Empower minorities (especially where living in ethnic groups with limited relations to other nations)
    • Vaccine should be immediately released among the nation... unless the ethnic minority is already resistant
    • Vaccine could be sold to get a lot of money
    • Targeted enemy would vanish soon after (some dead immediately, rest would vanish after a generation since they are sterile)
    • Whoever used it, would get area for expansion
    • To ensure villain's supremacy, enemy should be still bound somehow (ex. need of continuous vaccination)
    • Would shift world economy much
    • Whoever use it would be blamed by the history (but likely less than in case of a deadly virus)
  • Not deadly at all
    • Could become deadly due to mutations
    • Not deadly thus not impacting any countries (at least at first until it is a problem)
    • Not really usable
The middle scenario seems most usable. But no one would like to be blamed for using such a weapon. And development of bio-weaponry is (in theory) illegal (yet many countries work on it).

Possible targets.
  • Own country. Makes no sense unless you wish to mitigate traces at all cost.
    • Beneficial for the country only if we exterminate rest of the world.
    • Nonsense in case of China since they have strong economy which is well driven.
  • Economically strong country where it would create a hole in the world economy. China, India, US are some options.
    • Need to be well prepared to fill the hole (thus other listed candidates could benefit from that).
    • Beneficial for the country to fill the gap.
  • Country that is very bound with us by trade. Some examples are US-China, Russia-Europe+China.
    • Must be prepared to "support" the country quickly (and to overtake it).
    • Beneficial to whoever is in good relations with such country and who has economy solid enough to take the overruled nation's place.
  • Country that is a rivalry supplier of some goods. Ex. Russia, Norway, US.
    • Beneficial for the rivalry. 
  • A country with many citizens, solid economy and dense population (to maximize spread rate). Ex. China, India.
    • Small country that is immune to the bio-weaponry.
There are more scenarios. But it seems a very bad idea if China would do it (intentionally).
USA seems a valid candidate as it is bound with China by trade and could overtake China's place. It would also remove a strong rivalry on the economy race. If they have a vaccine this would also give a strong economy boost related to vaccine sell.
Smaller countries that are very ethnic. Israel, Poland, African countries, Norway, etc.
Any other scenarios?

For me the virus looks just "too perfect".
We will see what the future would show.